The
"EU through the Eyes of Asia" Phase III Interim Workshop
Hanoi,
Vietnam
7-9 May
2008
The
Asia-Europe Foundation (ASEF), in partnership with the National
Centre for Research on Europe (NCRE) and the School of Social Sciences
and Humanities-Vietnam National University Hanoi co-organised an
interim workshop for the country teams from Vietnam, Indonesia and
the Philippines involved in Phase III of the “EU through the Eyes
of Asia” study. Themes covered during the meeting included:
Discussion
on Project Successes and Challenges
Teams
Reports of Media Findings
Comparative
Analysis of Media Findings
Teams
Reports of Comparative Analysis
Teams
Reports of Elite Findings
Deadlines
and Future Plans
Team
members also participated in “The EU through the Eyes of Asia” book
launch, a partnership between ASEF, NCRE, the School of Social Sciences
and Humanities-Vietnam National University Hanoi and the Delegation
of the European Commission in Vietnam.
The
event was opened by Prof. Pham Quang Minh, Dean of the Department
of International Studies, School of Social Sciences and Humanities
and Mr. Truong Trieu Duong, ASEF Board Governor to Vietnam . It
featured keynote speeches from Ambassador Sean Doyle, Head of the
Delegation of the European Commission in Vietnam and Prof. Dr. Nguyen
Van Kanh, Rector of the School of Social Sciences and Humanities.
The
event generated much interest from the international community in
Hanoi. Members of the diplomatic community, the academe and the
local media made up the approximately 50 guests that attended, underlining
one more time the importance of the project and direct relevance
of this study to stakeholders of Asia-Europe relations.
The
country team will reconvene for another interim workshop in Singapore
on 1-2 August 2008.
Intensive
Co-operation with scholars from China
Within
the framework of the EU-China-European Studies Centres Programme
(ESCP), eight research fellows from China were visiting ZEI in 2007.
Five of them came from the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences and
three researchers came from the European Studies Centre of Sichuan
University in Chengdu. Their research studies in collaboration with
ZEI scholars focused on the further development of European Studies
in China and the following topics:
1.
The research study of the policies of EU and ASEM (Asia-Europe
Meeting) toward China . Among the results of this research was the
insight that although ASEM has already displayed its significance
in the Asia-Europe relationship and world affairs since its creation
in 1996, there are some shortcomings, inter alia a) the non-institutional
approach and related matters of efficiency.; b) am imbalance between
Asia and EU in light of EU enlargements; c) the low degree of public
participation.
2.
The impact of EU's eastward enlargement with a focus on governance
matters.
3.
The integration of the European financial market, with the focus
on the history and actual situation of the European financial market
as well as its implication on the financial
market in East Asia and the inflation target policy of the ECB.
4.
The 19th century European identity as embodied in literary and artistic
developments and a semiotic hypothesis on European identity building.
5.
The multilingualism policy and the cultural diversity in the EU.
Prof.
Dr. Jian Shi (Director of the European Studies Centre at Sichuan
University Chengdu) worked with ZEI and other European partners
from University of Paris and the Free University Amsterdam on the
final evaluation of the European Studies Programme in China and
the future collaboration. Prof. Shi also finished two working papers,
one on the free movement of workers and related policy issues in
the context of EU eastward enlargement, the other on new tendencies
in EU immigration policies.
Prof.
Qian Yunchun and Li Jing ( Shanghai ) translated a ZEI Discussion
Paper by ZEI Director Ludger Kühnhardt on the meaning of crises
in European integration for publication in China .
Other
visiting scholars from Asia came in 2007 to ZEI from the Beijing
Normal University, Taiwan National University and Seoul National
University.
2nd
ESiA Lecture Tour: The EU through the Eyes of China and Hong Kong
Warsaw
| Prague | Vienna | Budapest | Ljubljana | Cork
4-15
February 2008
The
2nd ESiA Lecture Tour titled “The EU through the Eyes of Asia: The
Case of China and Hong Kong” was delivered by Dr. Kenneth Chan of
Hong Kong Baptist University, China . It examined the significance
of Europe and the European Union (EU) to the citizens in China and
Hong Kong, comparing perceptions regarding the EU among the media,
general public and elites in the two locations. Key questions that
were addressed included:
Is the EU a recognisable actor in the eyes the citizens of China
and Hong Kong?
What are the most mentioned images of the EU in China and Hong Kong?
How would people in China and Hong Kong evaluate the current and
future state of relationship with the EU?
How important is the EU to China and Hong Kong when compared to
the United States and other neighbouring nations?
Has the enlargement process and other internal developments of the
EU influenced how it is perceived by its Asian counterparts?
What are the major sources news and information about the EU in
China and Hong Kong ?
Looking ahead, as the EU's relevance to China and Hong Kong is expected
to grow, what are the opportunities and obstacles concerning the
roles and expectations of the EU?
Dr.
Chan delivered his lecture in Warsaw (hosted by University of Warsaw);
Prague (hosted by Charles University Prague); Vienna (hosted by
the Austrian Institute for International Affairs); Budapest (hosted
by Corvinus University Budapest); Ljubljana (hosted by the University
of Ljubljana); and Cork (hosted by University College Cork).
The
findings presented in this lecture were part of a wider study initiated
by ASEF and the National Centre for Research on Europe (NCRE) –
University of Canterbury , to measure the media, public and elite
perceptions of the EU in the Asian region. Implemented under the
framework of ASEF's European Studies in Asia (ESiA) network, the
first and second of the phases of the study involved China , Japan
, Korea , Singapore and Thailand , from 2005-2007.
Thus,
the lecture tour was also an opportunity to further disseminate
the project findings by promoting the “The EU through the Eyes of
Asia: Media, Public and Elite Perceptions in China, Japan, Korea,
Singapore and Thailand ”, the first major publication that resulted
from this endeavour.
An
initiative by the Academia Sinica Europæa, the Euro-China
Forum creates the conditions for dialogue between the two
edges of the Eurasian continent.
Held
o nce a year in a different European city, Chinese and European
intellectuals, policymakers, opinion leaders, academics, economists
and actors of the business community meet on the occasion of the
forum in order to improve mutual understanding and to discuss issues
of common interest.
The
first forum in 2002 was organised in Barcelona. In 2003 in cooperation
with the Irish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the UCD Michael Smurfit
Graduate School of Business, the forum traveled to Ireland 's capital
Dublin. For its third edition, the forum took place in Sweden with
the strong support of the Stockholm County . In 2005 the forum was
co-organised with Casa Asia in Barcelona. The fifth edition took
place in Sofia , Bulgaria. The 2006 forum was strongly supported
by the Bulgarian government and co-organised by the Diplomatic Institute.
Five
years old only the forum is gaining momentum. In the words of Minister
Zhao Qizheng, former Director of the PRC's State Council Information
Office: “The Euro-China Forum provides a platform for exchange and
discussion, does enhance mutual understanding and makes great contribution
to the strategic relationship on all fronts between China and Europe.
The Euro-China Forum is gaining in influence”. Mr Laurent Fabius,
former Prime Minister of the Republic of France wrote about the
Forum: “We, Europeans and Chinese, should
seize every opportunity to smoothen out potential frictions and
to bridge the gap between the intensification of our commercial
relationship and the weakness of our intellectual exchanges. In
this respect, the Euro-China Forum plays a crucial part. And its
influence keeps growing.”
However,
much more work has to be done in order to deepen the relationship
between the two civilizations. The Euro-China Forum is
a process not an event: it will build on its past experiences and
achievements and always keep an eye open toward the future.
On
19 April 2007, members of the ESiA Advisory Group involved in the
ongoing “EU through the Eyes of Asia” project, namely Prof. Martin
Holland, Assoc. Prof. Kenneth Chan and Prof. Sunghoon Park, together
with Dr. Natalia Chaban, were invited to present findings at a high-level
European Commission (EC) meeting in Brussels , Belgium . Hosted
by Mr. Janez Potocnik, European Commissioner for Science and Research,
this meeting involved four EC Director-Generals (Research, Relex,
Communications and EAC); members of the European Parliament; as
well as the Chef de Cabinet for the Commission, Ms. Margot Wallström.
The
meeting took the innovative form of a lunch-time briefing and following
the formal presentations, there was an in-depth and extended debate
and dialogue. The ESiA Team made policy recommendations relating
to addressing the European Union (EU)'s profile in Asia and in particular
how external perspectives on the EU may be able to contribute to
the EU's current internal constitutional debate.
The
meeting was organised and financially supported by European Cooperation
in the Field of Scientific and Technical Research (COST) and it
is hoped that further collaboration can be promoted that maximises
the joint impact of ESiA, ASEF and COST.
The
European Commission has recently integrated its various educational
and training initiatives under a single new umbrella programme called
the Lifelong Learning Programme. The new programme has a significant
budget of nearly €7 billion to be spent over the period of
2007 to 2013. It provides opportunities for people at all stages
of their lives to pursue stimulating learning across Europe.
The
Lifelong Learning Programme will replace previous education, vocational
training and eLearning programmes which covered the period of 2000
to 2006, bringing together the four successful sub-programmes that
the public is already familiar with, namely, Comenius (for school),
Erasmus (for higher education, Leonardo da Vinci (for vocational
education and training) and Grundtvig (for adult education) as well
as the Jean Monnet programmes.
In
recognition of the thousands of enthusiastic and ambitious projects
supported by the EU in the field of education and training during
that period, 100 success stories (20 each from Comenius, Grundtvig,
Erasmus, Leonardo da Vinci and Jean Monnet) have been identified.
Prof.
Martin Holland, who is the Director of the National Centre for Research
on Europe (NCRE), University of Canterbury, and holds the Jean Monnet
Chair of Political Science (since 2001), is co-founder and valued
partner of the ESiA initiative. His chair has been selected as one
of the 20 success stories of the Jean Monnet programme in Europe
and the rest of the world.
Since
joining Canterbury 's academic staff in 1984, Professor Holland
has been remarkably effective in developing European integration
studies . The Jean Monnet Chair and teaching modules have been central
to the establishment of Australaisia's first and only "EU Studies"
undergraduate degree major involving 13 papers across 4 disciplines
devoted to the study of the EU. The Centre has also initiated an
EU curriculum initiative designed to generate an online database
of core curricula. Furthermore, the Jean Monnet activities have
been an important facilitating factor in the establishment in 2006
of the New Zealand EU Centres Network that now embraces 7 of the
8 universities in New Zealand and is dedicated to spreading EU courses
and research through the country.
In
addition to his educational activities, Professor Holland has been
successful in creating a dynamic research team , notably within
the framework of the Jean Monnet Multilateral Research Group on
"The EU Through the Eyes of the Asia-Pacific". It was
the first of its kind to examine the external perceptions of the
EU in the Asia-Pacific in a rigorous methodological way.
ASEF
and NCRE are currently undertaking an expansion of this project
to include China (including Hong Kong), Korea, Japan, Thailand and
Singapore . This phase of the project will be completed later this
year, however, there are already concrete plans to further extend
this project to include Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines in
2008.
Launch
of the Database on Education Exchange Programmes (DEEP)
By
Ms. Valerie Remoquillo
Project
Executive, People-to-People Exchange
Asia-Europe
Foundation
ASEM's DATABASE ON EDUCATION Exchange
Programmes (DEEP), a comprehens ive online portal on universities,
student exchanges and scholarships in Asia and Europe , was formally
launched on 13 April 2007, as a key event on the occasion of the Asia-Europe
Foundation (ASEF)'s tenth anniversary.
DEEP
aims to provide general information and to promote greater awareness
of study opportunities and encourage mobility within the academic
community in Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) partner countries. The availability
of such information through the web will place university
students in Asia and Europe in a better position to make the necessary
assessment of possible benefits of studying in the ASEM countries.
Around
60 guests gathered for the DEEP launch, which was opened by Ambassador
Wonil Cho, ASEF's Executive Director. Together with representatives
from the diplomatic community in Singapore , the DEEP launch was
attended by representatives of Singapore higher education institutions,
including the National University of Singapore, Nanyang Technological
University and the Singaporean Institute of Management, as well
as students from local secondary schools.
The
DEEP exhibition, featuring computer terminals from which guests
could browse and navigate the web portal, was staged for the entire
afternoon of 13 April and was frequented by more than 50 visitors,
some of whom also took part in the other ASEF commemorative activities.
DEEP
is a partnership between ASEF and the International Association
of Universities, the Academic Co-operation Association and Sequence
Design International, expressed their commitment to work in partnership
with ASEF to move forward with this pioneering effort.
DEEP
was made possible with the generous support of the Japanese Government,
represented at the launch by Deputy Head of Mission and Minister
Mr. Hiroaki Isobe of the Embassy of Japan and former ASEF Governor
for Japan , Ambassador Koji Watanabe.
The
Database on Education Exchange Programmes (DEEP) is available at
http://deep.asef.org
Regionalism
in Europe and Asia after the Cold War
By
Prof. Douglas Webber
Professor
of Political Science
INSEAD
Fontainebleau,
France
The
most powerful dynamic that has shaped the development of regional
integration in Europe and Asia in recent times is the end or winding
down of the Cold War. Despite the manifold divergences between European
and Asian integration, this enormous geopolitical earthquake has
confronted both regions with a range of fundamentally comparable
challenges. This paper identifies five such challenges: changing
regional distributions of power, democratisation pressures, accelerated
economic globalisation, enlargement coupled with institutional reform,
and US-led unipolarity in international (especially military) affairs.
It discusses the nature and magnitude of these challenges, explores
how regional organisations in the two continents have responded
to them, and evaluates how overall the end of the Cold War has affected
European and Asian regional (political) integration. It concludes
that, while the end or winding down of the Cold War has naturally
facilitated the geographic extension of integration processes, it
has – particularly in Europe - heightened the obstacles to closer
or “deeper” regional integration. Thus the impact of this turning-point
in recent world political history on European and Asian regional
integration has been highly ambivalent and it is by no means certain
that we can look forward to a politically more highly integrated
Europe or Asia .
Introduction
It
is a commonplace that the divergences between European and Asian
regionalism outweigh their similarities. Compared with its Asian
counterpart(s), European regionalism is notably much more highly
institutionalised (at least in a formal-legal sense) and much more
demanding in terms of the criteria that a candidate state must fulfil
to qualify for membership. Compared with Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN), the European Union (EU) was historically
also more inclusive in as far as, prior to the end of the Cold War,
it organised all the big non-communist European powers (at least
following the entry of the UK in 1973), while ASEAN did not integrate
the economically most highly developed non-communist Asian states,
first and foremost Japan. For all their other divergences, however,
regional integration processes in Europe and Asia share common historical
origins: they have their roots to a large extent in the Cold War,
in the perception among the leaders of the non-communist states
– in Europe in the 1950s and in Southeast Asia as the Vietnam War
raged in the mid- and late 1960s - that they had to co-ordinate
and to overcome their internal rivalries in the face of a common
external threat to their security. It is hence understandable that
the end or winding down of the Cold War raised fundamental questions
about the future of this process in both regions. Not all recent
developments in European and Asian regionalism are attributable
to this one variable. One important other dynamic that has fostered
the growth of regionalism, for example, has been an increasing crisis
of multilateral trade liberalisation negotiations, which has spawned
a growing number of initiatives to liberalise trade on a regional
or bilateral basis. No attempt is made in this paper, however, to
explore the role of this or other factors than the end of the Cold
War in shaping the fate of regionalism in Europe in Asia. Implicitly
at least the paper argues that once the direct or indirect impact
of the end or “thawing out” of the Cold War on European and Asian
integration has been taken into account, there is not too much left
that can be attributed to other variables. The impact of the end
of the Cold War on the paths followed by European and Asian regionalism
has been fundamental, but the following analysis will try to show
that this impact has also been highly contradictory, with the end
of the Cold War strengthening and accelerating these processes in
certain respects while weakening and slowing them down in others.
Regional
Integration and the End of the Cold War in Europe and Asia
The
end of the Cold War may be regarded as comprising three components
or levels. At the level of ideology, it involves the effective abandonment
or discrediting of the project or aspiration of building a political
system in which the communist party exercised a monopoly of political
power and an economic system based on state ownership and comprehensive
economic planning. In the real political world, it involves the
termination of communist one-party rule and in the real economic
world the privatisation of property and liberalisation of economic
activity. The end of the Cold War came very swiftly and abruptly
in Europe. Within a period of just over two years, from the opening
of the Hungarian border to Austria and the staging of free elections
in Poland in the middle of 1989 to the dissolution of the Soviet
Union in December 1991, all of the communist regimes in Europe collapsed
and the entire former Soviet bloc embarked on a transition to market
economics and liberal democratic politics. In Asia, the end or winding
down of the Cold War has been a longer, more gradual and more attenuated
process. Ideologically and in economic-systemic terms, the Cold
War is arguably over, but, in as far as the communist political
regimes in Asia have all survived, important political vestiges
of the Cold War remain, as do two Cold-War-rooted issues, namely
the separation of North and South Korea and China and Taiwan, that
constitute significant actual or latent threats to regional peace
and stability. The contrasting tempos at which the Cold War ended
or wound down meant that this process had a more dramatic impact
on the agenda of regional integration in Europe than in Asia. Nonetheless,
albeit at a different pace and in somewhat different forms, the
end of the Cold War has generated fundamentally similar issues with
which regional organisations in both Europe and Asia have been forced
to confront over the last 15 years or so and with which they are
still grappling today. In my view, these issues are five-fold: they
relate to (1) changing (actual or prospective) regional distributions
of power , (2) democratisation , (3) globalisation
, (4) the enlargement or “widening” and “reform” of existing
regional organisations and (5) the emergence of US-led
unipolarity in international military affairs.
Changing
Regional Distributions of Power
In
both regions, the end of the Cold War has involved very important
shifts in the actual or prospective distribution of inter-state
power. In Europe, the fall of the Berlin Wall immediately raised
the spectre of German reunification and the issue of whether a future
united Germany would be much more powerful than any other Western
European state. In Asia, the rapid economic growth that began to
develop in China following the market-oriented reforms introduced
by Deng Xiao-ping raised the spectre of future Chinese domination
of East Asia.
The
post-World War II division of Germany had facilitated West European
integration by reducing the old Federal Republic to roughly the
same demographic size as the other big West European powers (France,
the UK and Italy). Starting in November 1989, the extremely rapid
process of German reunification raised strong fears among other
EU member states as to whether the new united Germany would remain
committed to the goal of closer European integration and/or aspire
to becoming a hegemonic regional power. Within days of the fall
of the Berlin Wall and after Chancellor Helmut Kohl famous 10-point
plan for German reunification announced in the German Parliament
in late November 1989, French President François Mitterrand
was speculating ominously about a possible “reversal of alliances”
in Europe, whereby France, the United Kingdom (UK) and Russia would
form a coalition to balance and counter the power and conceivable
hegemonic plans of a future united Germany. However, Mitterrand's
blandishment of this threat in his meetings with German leaders
was tactical. His goal, and that of most other EU governments at
that time (but not Margaret Thatcher), was to contain German power
by embedding the united Germany in a more tightly integrated Europe,
in particular by accelerating the introduction of a single European
currency, for which there was already a blueprint, but which, for
domestic-political reasons, Kohl was reluctant to accept and for
whose adoption no concrete timetable had yet been agreed. For Mitterrand,
this was the project that best served the goal of tying down German
power, because the Deutsche Mark was Germany's functional equivalent
to a nuclear weapon. Under intense pressure after his 10-point speech
to make a concrete gesture to underline the Federal Republic's continuing
commitment to the European cause, and knowing that as one of the
Allied Powers France retained the power in international law to
veto German reunification, Kohl basically signed up to the single
currency at the European Council meeting in Strasbourg in December
1989. The Euro may thus be seen as the product of an at least implicit
Franco-German bargain whereby France consented to German reunification
in exchange for Germany's agreeing to give up the Deutsche Mark.
In this sense, the prospect of German reunification and the shift
in the distribution of power in Europe it was thought this would
produce led directly, via French diplomacy, to the realisation of
the most significant project to forge closer European integration
in the last few decades.
In
the light of China's demographic preponderance in East Asia, the
very rapid growth of the Chinese economy since the 1980s, especially
when projected into the future, raised similar fears in East Asia
concerning China's future regional role to those provoked by the
prospect of German reunification in Europe. Like Germany's neighbours
in Europe, China's neighbours have been confronted with the choice
of whether to react to the rise of post-Mao China by trying collectively
to balance its power by coalescing against it, to “bandwagon” with
it (that is to say, to acquiesce in its domination of the region)
or – as, apart from the UK, most other EU member states preferred
to do vis-à-vis the uniting Germany – embrace and tame it
by extricating it in a denser network of regional co-operation.
With varying degrees of enthusiasm, with Malaysia and Thaksin's
Thailand located towards one end of the spectrum and Indonesia and
Vietnam towards the other, most neighbouring states have pursued
an embracement strategy, as witnessed by ASEAN's involvement of
China in the ASEAN+3 process, while hedging their bets by supporting
a continued strong American military presence in the region. The
creation – alongside the ASEAN+3 process – of the East Asian Summit,
in which India as well as Australia and New Zealand participated,
may also point to their pursuing a strategy of balancing Chinese
power by incorporating India in regional co-operation.
At
the same time, since the early 1990s, Chinese foreign policy has
undergone a pronounced multilateralist and regionalist reorientation,
in part because, through its rapid economic development, China has
become much more dependent on the international economy, but also
because China sees it as prudent to reassure its neighbours that
it is a good and trustworthy regional citizen. The reciprocal will
of China and its neighbours increasingly to engage each other has
driven the widening and deepening of pan-East Asian co-operation
over the last decade. A turning-point in this process seems to have
been the constructive stance adopted by China in not devaluing its
currency during the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis.
Democratisation
Pressures
Especially
in Central and Eastern Europe, where the Soviet army had imposed
communist regimes by force, the end of the Cold War also unleashed
powerful forces of political liberalisation and democratisation.
All of the former communist regimes in Central and Eastern Europe
underwent democratic transitions in a very short period in 1989
and 1990. The relationship between regional integration and democratisation
is, however, complex and double-edged. Each has, in different respects,
affected the other.
Arguably,
in as far as it is comprised of liberal-democratic states and served
as a “beacon” for the Central and Eastern Europe nations, the EU
by its very existence, nature and relative success in promoting
peace and prosperity in Western Europe helped to foster the demand
for political liberalisation and democratisation. Certainly, the
EU subsequently bolstered and reinforced processes of democratic
consolidation by the whole panoply of agreements through which it
provided financial and technical aid to the post-communist states,
by making these states' future accession to the EU contingent upon
their fulfilling stringent political criteria and then – two years
ago – by accepting them as members. In this respect, the post-communist
states followed a similar path to that taken earlier by the former
right-wing-authoritarian-governed Southern European states, Greece,
Spain and Portugal.
The
political stability of many new post-communist democracies was menaced,
however, by the mobilisation of ethnic, religious or communal cleavages.
Where the latter were less intense and/or the affected states had
a realistic prospect of EU accession in the not too distant future,
they did not derail the process of peaceful democratic consolidation.
Where, especially under conditions of economic hardship and dislocation,
they were more intense and/or the EU's means to constrain the behaviour
of the new popularly-elected political elites were more limited,
notably in former Yugoslavia, democratisation fuelled escalating
inter-ethnic, inter-religious or inter-communal violence and bloodshed.
The wars in former Yugoslavia negatively affected European integration
in two ways. First, they elongated the time horizons in which most
of the former Yugoslavian republics could aspire to join the EU
and thus braked the EU's widening. Second, despite the fact that
none of the former Yugoslavian states was yet an EU member, the
EU's manifest incapacity to intervene to put an end to the bloodshed
provoked a grave crisis of credibility for the organisation. The
yawning gulf between the EU's lofty ambitions and the resources
it could mobilise to accomplish them turned the “hour of Europe”
into its humiliation.
The
relationship between democratisation and regional integration in
Asia is a great deal more muted than in Europe. The communist political
regimes in Asia – China, Vietnam, Laos and North Korea – have all
withstood the shock of the end of the Cold War while undertaking,
as in the case of China, radical changes or, in the case of North
Korea, only very limited changes in their economic systems. As is
well-known, ASEAN has always upheld the doctrine of mutual non-interference
in member states' domestic political affairs and never required
aspiring member states to be liberal democracies. Only recently,
in respect of Myanmar, where the military junta allowed free elections
in 1990, but refused afterwards to accept their results and put
their winner under long-term house arrest, has ASEAN ventured, albeit
without any visible success, to try to persuade a member government
to implement liberalising or democratic reforms.
Indirectly,
however, the end of the Cold War had a powerful impact on authoritarian
non-communist rule in ASEAN's biggest member state and primus
inter pares , Indonesia. The processes of trade and financial
globalisation that the end of the Cold War accelerated (see next
section) contributed to Indonesia's enmeshment in the Asian financial
crisis that started in Thailand in 1997. More importantly, the end
of the Cold War made the Clinton administration in the US much more
indifferent to the fate of the Suharto regime in Jakarta. The tough
conditions imposed on IMF loans to Indonesia helped to undermine
Suharto's rule and pave the way for the country's democratic transition
in 1998-99. However, Indonesian democratisation took the lid off
various pent-up conflicts in Indonesia that the Suharto regime had
suppressed by force. To the economic crisis were added the “haze”
crisis, which symbolised the post-Suharto government's weak law-enforcement
capacity, the East Timor crisis, and violent inter-communal conflicts
in numerous parts of the archipelago, including Sulawesi, the Spice
Islands and Kalimantan. The preoccupation of the post-Suharto governments
with the management of these crises and conflicts immobilised Indonesia's
regional diplomacy and for several years becalmed and discredited
ASEAN. In the way that they created hitherto non-existent space
for the political mobilisation of inter-communal or inter-ethnic
cleavages in Indonesia and former Yugoslavia, democratisation processes
had a paralysing impact on regional political integration in both
Asia and Europe during the post-Cold War era.
Accelerated
Trade and Financial Globalisation
Economic
globalisation, defined as the growth of the volume and velocity
of cross- relative to within-border exchange of goods, services
and capital, did not originate with the end of the Cold War. Fuelled
by technological changes that reduced transportation and communications
costs and aided by the international institutional framework set
up principally by the United States (US) after the World War II,
globalisation had been advancing for several decades before the
Cold War ended. However, with the collapse of the communist bloc
in Europe and the opening of the Chinese economy from the late 1970s
onwards, economic globalisation accelerated sharply. Within no more
than about a decade, the international economy expanded to incorporate
a large part of the globe and a large part of the world's population
which had been marginal or peripheral to it for several preceding
decades.
The
Cold War had divided Europe and Asia more deeply than any other
of the world's regions or continents. As post-Cold War intra-regional
economic interdependence has grown, so governments in both regions
have come under greater – but variable - pressure from transnational
business interests to reduce cross-border barriers to economic exchange.
In the EU, this pressure has fostered a large number of initiatives
that build on the 1992 project adopted in the middle of the 1980s
and extend the scope of the single European market. The most recent
of these initiatives is the highly controversial “Bolkestein directive”
to liberalise the internal services market. Proposed directives
to harmonise takeover rules to create a free internal market for
corporate control and to harmonise corporate governance structures
have also been highly contested, because, in contrast to trade liberalisation,
these threaten to undermine many of the specific and divergent incarnations
of capitalism that had developed historically in the member states.
In ASEAN, business pressures for internal trade liberalisation have
been considerably weaker – there has been no effective “ASEAN” business
constituency to sponsor such projects. Stronger pressure for such
measures has come instead from Japanese and American multinational
companies. Projects such as that to harmonise foreign direct investment
rules have been supported by ASEAN governments autonomously of business
interests because they fear that otherwise foreign direct investment
will be displaced to China. This fear may also account partially
for the ASEAN states' interest in the formation of an ASEAN-China
free trade zone; although on the Chinese side this project may be
more strongly motivated by expectations of geopolitical than material
economic advantage.
International
financial flows have grown more rapidly than any other form of cross-border
economic exchange. With them has come, other things being equal,
a greater potential for international financial crises that can
disrupt intra-regional exchange-rate parities and trade. In Europe,
the European Monetary System (EMS), a system of fixed exchange-rates,
and, with it, the single currency project managed to survive two
bouts of extreme turbulence in the foreign exchange markets in 1992
and 1993, albeit at the cost of sterling's exit from the system
and a widening of its currency fluctuation bands. Although geopolitical
motives were most influential in the birth of the Euro, this project
was also conceived as a means of pre-empting European currency crises
and providing a solid underpinning of the single market, which could
otherwise unravel under their impact. A single currency could also
forestall possibly disruptive consequences for European exchange-rate
parities of fluctuating levels of confidence in the American dollar
and thus enable the EU member states to insulate themselves better
against the effects of US economic policy (see below).
Monetary
co-operation in Asia was non-existent prior to the 1997-1998 financial
crisis. Rather, in Asia, the crisis spurred first proposals for
forging closer regional monetary and financial co-operation, particularly
because there was a widely shared resentment among political and
business elites as to the timing and conditions of financial aid
provided to crisis-hit countries by the International Monetary Fund
(IMF). If Japan's initial proposal to create an Asian Monetary Fund,
opposed by the US, failed, the ASEAN Plus Three countries did adopt
a currency-swap agreement in 2001 to ward off new such crises. Meanwhile,
the creation of an Asian Currency Unit, which could be a precursor
to the regional co-ordination of exchange rates, has reached the
regional political agenda. Whereas in Europe trade integration historically
preceded monetary integration, in Asia the sequence, shaped by the
financial crisis, has been the reverse. However, Asian monetary
integration is still not as highly developed as it was in Europe
in the early 1970s.
This
pronounced inter-regional divergence in the achieved levels of integration
notwithstanding, money is the sector in which the most notable integration
projects have been realised following the end of the Cold War. Meanwhile,
however, the political conditions for the further liberalisation
of intra-regional exchange have grown more difficult in both regions.
In the context of persistent relative economic stagnation, public
attitudes towards the Euro have grown significantly more critical.
The expansion of the Euro beyond the original 12 member states has
ground to a virtual halt while a debate has been triggered as to
whether, on account of its miserable economic performance, Italy
in particular may be forced to abandon the currency. As indicated
by the result of the French referendum on the proposed constitutional
treaty, the unpopularity of the original Bolkestein directive in
most of the old member states, and perceived public hostility among
the latter to the introduction of free labour movement with new
member states speak an unequivocal language: there is, at least
in the EU old member states, a growing backlash against further
internal market liberalisation, which has come to be associated
with stagnant or declining incomes, higher unemployment and growing
insecurity and income disparities . The evolution of attitudes towards
greater market liberalisation in Asia is more difficult to assess,
as in most Asian states freedom of political expression is more
limited than in Europe. Since the announcement of plans for a whole
plethora of trade liberalisation projects linking the ASEAN members
and also the “Plus Three” countries as well a few years ago, however,
progress in these projects' actual implementation has been fitful
and uneven. Many seem to exclude or likely to exclude variable,
but significant numbers of “politically sensitive” sectors, such
as agriculture, for example, in Japan and South Korea. Meanwhile,
the military coup that deposed the Thaksin government in Thailand
in 2006 threatened to deprive ASEAN of one of the organisation's
two strongest proponents of regional trade liberalisation.
Enlargement
and Reform of Regional Organisations
Enlargement
is the issue with which the end of the Cold War has most clearly
and unequivocally confronted existing regional organisations. In
Europe, the passing of the Cold War reduced the constraints on the
foreign policy autonomy of several states sharing borders with former
communist bloc countries, facilitating Austrian, Finnish and Swedish
accession to the EU in 1995. German reunification had brought former
East Germany into the EU already in 1990. Very quickly, most of
the other former communist states were drawn closer to the “old”
EU through the Europe agreements that began to prepare them for
eventual entry, which materialised for the three Baltic states,
Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia in May
2004. Bulgaria and Romania will accede to the EU in January 2007.
By then, the number of EU members will have grown during the post-Cold
War period from 12 to 27. But, while the number of member states
will have more than doubled, their combined population will have
increased by only about a third and the EU's wealth by no more than
about one-tenth. Hence, the post-Cold War enlargement has shifted
the balance in the EU from the bigger to the smaller and from the
richer to the poorer member states.
At
the time that the enlargement process was initiated, there was a
fairly broad consensus among the existing member states that, despite
the innovations contained in the Maastricht Treaty (1992), the EU
treaties had to be revised again prior to the entry of the former
communist states to ensure that with an increasingly diverse membership
the EU would still be capable of making decisions. This conviction
led to the intergovernmental conferences from which the Amsterdam
and Nice treaties emerged in 1997 and 2000 respectively. The more
strongly “pro-integrationist” governments viewed the provisions
of these treaties as inadequate to avert decision-making paralysis
in an enlarged EU. Italian and Belgian governments, along with the
European Parliament, insisted that they would not approve the Central
and Eastern European enlargement without more far-reaching treaty
changes. At the Laeken summit of the European Council in 2001, the
Belgian, French and German governments sponsored an initiative to
make a fourth post-Cold War attempt to revise the EU treaties. The
task of drafting a new EU “constitution” was assigned to a “European
Convention”, which produced a draft document for negotiation in
a new intergovernmental conference. The “Constitutional Treaty”
that emerged from this process has meanwhile been approved by a
majority of member states, but was defeated in popular referenda
in France and the Netherlands. This was not the first occasion on
which a referendum on a proposed new European treaty had failed.
Denmark voted initially against the Maastricht Treaty and Ireland
against that of Nice. In both these cases, however, arrangements
could be found to placate enough of the treaties' opponents to get
these “no” votes overturned in a new referendum. However, the causes
of the Constitutional Treaty's rejection in France and the Netherlands
are so disparate and the treaty lends itself so little to any “bending”
that this treaty will hardly be able to be rescued in the same way
that its two predecessors were. As treaty changes must be approved
by all member states, this treaty has virtually no chance – in its
existing form – of being ratified. The fact that the treaty was
voted down in France, with Germany the traditional locomotive of
the integration process, is particularly damaging to prospects of
treaty reform, as it will tend to discourage any future French government
from re-engaging in this process. The treaty reform process is now
in an impasse from which it is not easy to envisage how it will
escape. In the short term, European eyes are fixed on the upcoming
French presidential elections in April/May 2007. In as far as neither
of the two Presidential front-runners is zealously pro-European,
however, it is unlikely that the post-election political constellation
in Paris will produce a bold new bid to launch the EU on a path
towards much deeper integration.
Optimists
argue that the EU has reached a more or less “stable” constitutional
state and that the decision-making process continues to function
satisfactorily on the basis of the Nice Treaty despite the increase
in the number of member states from 15 to 27. Certainly the legislative
process has carried on generating outputs at much the same rate
as before 2004. Given the obviously high level of political difficulty
of negotiating and securing the approval of a new treaty in 27 member
states, if the feared paralysis scenario should indeed materialise
at some stage, the most probable result would be the development
of a new debate about a more “differentiated”, “multiple-speed”
or “variable-geometry” Europe, whereby, as with the case of the
Euro and the Schengen Agreement on the dismantlement of border controls,
not all member states would participate in new integration projects.
Not much progress could be made in this direction, however, unless
there were close Franco-German co-ordination and these two former
lynch-pins of the integration process could recover their old roles
as “opposing poles” whose compromises could provide the focal point
for an accord between a larger group of “pro-integrationist” member
states.
Compared
with that of the EU, ASEAN's post-Cold War enlargement process was
much more straightforward. The “post-communist” Southeast Asian
states had no Copenhagen criteria relating to democracy, human rights
and market economics to fulfill and no large existing corpus of
regional law that they had to adopt and be capable of enforcing.
Nor did existing ASEAN states have to carry out obligations to the
prospective new member states comparable to those carried out by
the old EU member states vis-à-vis the newcomers in terms
of market-opening and financial transfers. ASEAN's enlargement process
took place correspondingly faster than the EU's, notwithstanding
the fact that Cambodia's accession was delayed by two years following
a semi-coup in Phnom Penh shortly before the country's scheduled
entry in 1997. As in Europe, however, the end of the Cold War and
its consequences, notably growing regional economic interdependence,
which the Asian financial crisis underscored, fuelled changes in
the conception of the appropriate geographical boundaries of the
“region” to be integrated. Starting in the early 1990s, ASEAN started
to develop and intensify consultations with states surrounding Southeast
Asia. This process led to the first meeting of the ASEAN+3 at the
ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur in 1997. During the subsequent decade,
efforts to forger closer integration within the ASEAN and between
ASEAN and the “Plus Three” have proceeded more or less in parallel.
However, ASEAN is evidently concerned thereby to preserve its separate
identity, not to forfeit control of the regional integration process
to the economically far more powerful Northeast Asian states, and
not to be merged or submerged into a larger East Asian regional
entity. Moreover, the discussion about and creation of the East
Asia Summit, in which India, Australia and New Zealand were invited
to participate, exposed divergent preferences among the ASEAN Plus
Three states as to the boundaries and identity of the region – preferences
that may be a surrogate for divergent fears - or levels of discomfort
over the prospect - of future Chinese domination of a “smaller”
East Asian grouping.
The
ASEAN enlargement process also generated concerns about the organisation's
future capacity for joint policy making and action and – particularly
because it brought into the organisation some states with highly
authoritarian political regimes – conflicts about the viability
or appropriateness of its traditional norm of mutual non-interference
in member states' domestic affairs. This conflict ignited over the
Thai government's advocacy of the concept of “flexible engagement”
that, if adopted and practised, would have qualified ASEAN's non-interference
norm. In practice, this conflict was won by the advocates of the
status quo, although the behaviour of the military regime in Myanmar
keeps the issue on the regional agenda. The greater diversity in
terms of economic development levels in the enlarged ASEAN also
threatened to raise the threshold for market liberalisation within
the region. This concern – shared especially by the more strongly
market-oriented member states, notably Singapore and Thailand -
led to the economics ministers' approval in 2002 of the principles
of “10 minus x” or “two plus x” for ASEAN economic co-operation
to facilitate more rapid integration among subsets of member states.
The “10 minus x” and “two plus x” concepts are ASEAN's functional
equivalents to differentiated or multi-speed integration in the
EU. However, to circumvent the higher consensus requirements for
region-wide market liberalisation in Southeast and wider East Asia,
pro-liberalisation states, led by Singapore, have more frequently
reverted to the negotiation of bilateral agreements with willing
partners both inside and outside the region.
In
both Europe and Asia, the logic of widening has prevailed over that
of “deepening” in the post-Cold War era. This outcome has heightened
the threshold for adopting region-wide common policies. Both ASEAN
and the EU have increasingly opted to preserve their capacity to
forge closer or deeper integration despite widening by creating
space for the formation of “coalitions of the willing”. It is hardly
possible to say yet to what extent this growing practice will succeed
in reconciling widening and deepening. Such practices were hitherto
legitimised with the argument that the states left out or behind
would later be willing and able to “catch up”. The longer that they
are not, the more difficult it will become to sustain this position,
which will then become a fiction, and the greater will become the
likelihood that such projects produce lasting divisions in the originally
conceived region rather than closer integration.
The
challenge of enlargement that the end of the Cold War placed on
the agenda of both regions has also – especially in Europe – raised
issues of regional identity. Not least as Europe has no sharply
distinguishable physical border to its east, where does Europe end?
If the geographical boundaries of Europe cannot be easily defined,
should and can Europe be defined in terms of culture, values and/or
the traits of political and economic systems? Europe's identity
crisis has been made all the more acute by the issue of prospective
Turkish accession to the EU. The prospect of the accession of a
large, relatively poor, and (despite the secular constitution of
the state) overwhelmingly Muslim country joining the EU – a project
that European foreign policy-makers embraced especially ardently
after the 9/11 terrorist attacks as a means of pre-empting a feared
“clash” of Western and Islamic civilisations - is currently opposed
by large numbers of citizens in the existing member states. Opinion
surveys in the old member states as well as polls of the motives
of opponents of the Constitutional Treaty in the French and Dutch
referenda attest to a strong sense of enlargement fatigue. Among
citizens of at least these states, support for not only the deepening,
but also the widening of European integration is waning.
In
Asia, where civil society is weaker and public perceptions of the
ASEAN and its enlargement processes are neither as visible nor as
politically consequential as in Europe, governments are on the whole
less constrained in their choices over widening and deepening than
are their European counterparts. However, the “enlargements” of
ASEAN pose a more acute challenge for the organisation's cohesion
than does enlargement in Europe for that of the EU. Prior to its
post-Cold War enlargement, the EU had developed a large corpus of
regional law ( acquis communautaire ), strong and accepted
treaty provisions and supranational organs to interpret it, and
the administrative capacity to enforce it through the bureaucracies
of the member states. This heritage bolsters the cohesion of the
EU (and the integrity of European law) by reducing the probability
that member governments will be tempted or able to cheat and “free-ride”
on the others. ASEAN and its offshoots (ASEAN+3 and prospectively
the EAS) share neither a large body of existing laws or binding
decisions, nor strong impartial or “third-party” organs of dispute
resolution, nor, given the weak administrative capacities of some
member states, favourable conditions for ensuring the implementation
of joint decisions. The “ASEAN Way” of mediating conflicts by the
informal exercise of peer group pressure had an uneven record even
in the old ASEAN. The likelihood that it will suffice for this purpose
in a bigger and more diverse East Asian regional organisation –
and that member states will therefore be willing and able to bind
themselves to pursue common policies - is bound to be lower. Short
of the development of stronger third-party/independent organs of
dispute resolution, political integration in Asia will rest on rather
unstable, shaky foundations.
US
Unipolarity in International Military Affairs
Internationally,
the end of the Cold War had two relevant consequences that have
shaped the course of important aspects of regional integration in
Europe and Asia. First, with the Soviet Union having collapsed,
Japan in deep economic doldrums during the 1990s, and Europe economically
relatively US and any other state or bloc of states, especially
in terms of military power projection capabilities, increased sharply.
The international balance of power tipped decisively towards US-dominated
unipolarity. Second, several international security crises that
had their roots in the decline or end of the Cold War and the old
bipolar world intensified or exploded. These involved either multinational
states (such as former Yugoslavia) that had been held together mainly
by the fear of superpower military intervention, states (such as
Saddam Hussein's Iraq) that could no longer be disciplined by a
superpower patron (in this case, the Soviet Union), states (such
as North Korea) that no longer benefited to the same extent from
superpower protection and had to make their own way in what they
perceived as a hostile environment, states (such as Iran) that had
broken away from their former patron and tried to form a new force
in international politics, or terrorist groups (such as Al-Qaeda)
that had been formed in their combat against the Soviet Union in
Afghanistan and, after having humbled the Red Army there, now turned
against the last remaining superpower, the US.
These
two consequences of the end of the Cold War posed one fundamental
challenge to states and regional organisations in Europe and Asia:
To what extent should they develop their own collective capacities
to respond to such crises or rely upon the US to manage them? Or,
in the language of (realist) international relations theory, to
what extent they should try to “balance” the US or “bandwagon” with
it? Both regions ended up deeply divided over the issue of relations
with the US. Correspondingly, neither has yet developed a significant
collective capacity for crisis intervention and management that
would enable it to act autonomously of the US.
In
as far as the old EU states were all explicit or implicit allies
of the US and virtually all of the post-communist candidate states
were eager to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
as well as the EU, relations with the US should have been a less
divisive issue in Europe than in Asia, where important vestiges
of the Cold War have persisted. However, the first big post-Cold
War regional security crisis, the wars in former Yugoslavia, provoked
strong tensions between Europe and the US as well as within the
EU itself. The Yugoslavian wars made the Europeans painfully aware
of their dependence on the US for the management of such crises
and of their need to develop their own collective military deployment
capacity if they wanted to safeguard their interests where these
diverged from the US'. The military intervention in Kosovo in 1999,
which was conducted overwhelmingly by American forces, persuaded
the main EU member states of the need to develop an own European
rapid reaction force that could be deployed in crises in which the
US did not wish to become involved. Especially given constraints
on public spending and the unpopularity of defence spending in Europe,
however, progress in actually developing such a force has been slow.
This
decision – taken at the EU's Cologne summit in 1999 – pre-supposed
a consensus among the “big powers” in the EU – France, the UK and
Germany – that at least for some limited purposes the EU should
not rely on the US to manage “out-of-area” security crises that
affected European interests. The “Saint Malo” declaration between
the UK, the US's staunchest European ally, and France, traditionally
its most critical or ambivalent one, had paved the way for this
initiative. Intra-European divergences over relations with the US,
its role in providing European security and the orientation of American
foreign policy were still manageable. Following the September 11
attacks and especially the decision by President George W. Bush
to invade Iraq, however, deep splits opened up between those governments
– the majority – that supported the invasion and those, the minority
in 2003, led by France and Germany, that opposed it. Underlying
the different choices made on this issue by the British Prime Minister
Tony Blair and French President Jacques Chirac were fundamentally
different attitudes towards a US-led unipolar world: Blair accepted
the US's dominant position in international affairs and sought to
influence American foreign policy from the inside; Chirac did not,
he rather aspired to a multipolar world in which French foreign
policy would be less constrained by the US. If, under the weight
of the growing unpopularity of the Iraq War and Bush's foreign policy
unilateralism, critics of the intervention among EU governments
have become more numerous than they were at the time of the Franco-German-Belgian
“Chocolate Summit” in 2003, trans-Atlantic security relations continue
to be a highly divisive issue in the EU and, other than in humanitarian
or peacekeeping missions, Europe is collectively not much more capable
of deploying military force independently of the US now than it
was 15 years ago.
Divergent
attitudes among the EU's big powers over the US's world role, the
relative weakness of the EU states' military intervention capacities
and Europe's consequent continuing dependence on the US in this
sphere place important limits on the scope for closer military-security
integration in the EU. However, along with the perception of a common
security threat posed by the Soviet Union and the settlement of
bilateral territorial conflicts, such as that between France and
Germany over the Saarland, the strong post-World War II American
military presence in Western Europe, which secured the West European
states against each other as well as the region as a whole against
the Soviet bloc, created a very propitious environment for European
integration in other policy domains. States tend not to integrate
as long as they view each other as mutual security threats and are
therefore mutually distrustful. In this regard, the conditions not
only for security, but also for wider political integration are
much less favourable in Asia than in Europe. No common perceived
external threat unites East Asia, numerous territorial conflicts
pitch states in the region against each other, and the US' military
presence, while arguing fulfilling a stabilising role, secures some
states (Japan, South Korea) against others (China, North Korea),
but does not provide a reciprocal security guarantee as it does
in Europe, where EU membership is almost contiguous with the NATO.
In
this, compared with Europe, much tenser and more conflictual security
environment, the potential for intra-regional conflict and divisions
over US unipolarity and foreign policy is much greater. Moves towards
closer regional security co-operation, which began with the creation
of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in 1994, have remained very limited.
The most striking manifestation of such co-operation has been on
the issue of North Korea's nuclear weapons programme, on which the
regional big powers (while differing over the more fundamental issue
of the regime's existence and survival) share at least a limited
common interest in curbing Pyongyang's behaviour, facilitating the
staging of the Six-Party-Talks. However, it is uncertain how long
these talks – in which the chief protagonists are the US and the
North Koreans - will continue and still more uncertain whether they
may be transformed into a permanent forum of security co-operation
in Northeast Asia as some have mooted.
The
American invasion of Iraq divided East Asian governments largely
between the US's traditional regional “friends”, on the one hand,
and traditional “foes”, on the other, although China left over the
task of orchestrating international opposition to the US to a Paris-Berlin-Moscow
axis. The relatively low-key stance adopted by China over the Iraq
War probably averted as intense a polarisation over the issue in
East Asia as in Europe. Indeed, pursued as part of its long-term
strategy of “peaceful development”, Chinese diplomacy appears to
have aimed to avoid any major confrontation with the US at the same
time as forging closer ties with Southeast Asian states and reassuring
them as to the benign nature of China's future foreign policy intentions.
It has tried to advance this agenda by offering and concluding “strategic
partnerships” with several states and pledging to settle bilateral
disputes peacefully. Chinese foreign policy towards Southeast Asia,
the role it has played in the conflict over North Korea's nuclear
weapons programme and its concern to avoid an overt confrontation
with the US have helped to keep East Asian security on a more even
keel than it otherwise would be. However, uncertain to varying degrees
as to how far they can trust an increasingly powerful China, most
Southeast Asian states are “hedging” their bets by simultaneously
maintaining, reviving or forming (closer) security ties with the
US or, like Singapore, pursuing a self-avowedly “promiscuous” foreign
policy aiming at developing close ties with as many big powers as
possible and ensuring that they all have a stake in regional security
and stability. Moreover, in recent years, owing to conflicts over
attitudes to the history of bilateral relations, the shifting bilateral
balance of power, ongoing maritime territorial disputes, and growing
competition for access to indispensable overseas natural resources,
Sino-Japanese relations have become more rather than less antagonistic.
Perceiving a growing Chinese military threat to its security, Japan
has strengthened its security alliance with the US. Given the inevitable
centrality of these two countries in Asian affairs, there can not
be a major increase in the pace and level of political integration
in the region without a prior transformation of Sino-Japanese relations.
Such a transformation presupposes more than a secret or implicit
undertaking by the new Japanese Prime Minister not to visit the
Yasukuni Shrine (again). Nor can it be engineered by growing economic
interdependence alone. Rather it requires a great and sustained
joint effort of political leaders in both countries to achieve an
historical reconciliation that will transform mutual distrust into
mutual trust.
Conclusion
The
decline and end of the Cold War has profoundly shaped the course
of regional integration in Europe and Asia over the last 10 to 15
years. This paper has identified and analysed five key challenges
that this geopolitical turning-point posed for pre-existing regional
organisations. These have responded to these challenges by both
widening to incorporate new members, extending integration into
new issue-areas, and, in the case of the EU, by revising the treaties
incrementally to facilitate and expedite the adoption of common
policies. The organisations' record in handling these challenges
has, however, been uneven. In particular, the (short-lived?) rise
of US unipolarity has divided both regions deeply and neither has
been able significantly to enhance its collective security crisis
management capabilities or lessen its dependence on the US as the
primary provider of regional security. The crises in post-transition
Indonesia and Yugoslavia – where democratisation unfroze latent
inter-communal conflicts – testified to both the ASEAN's and the
EU's impotence in this regard and dealt a heavy, although perhaps
not lasting, blow to both organisations' credibility.
The
challenge that these organisations have best managed is that of
enlargement. Under different conditions and at slightly different
speeds, both the EU and the ASEAN have opened their doors to the
neighbouring (not in all cases entirely) post-communist candidate
states. The Central and East European enlargement of the EU especially
constitutes an immense historical achievement, which may extend
the zone of democratic capitalist stability in Europe from the former
inner-German border and the Berlin Wall up to borders of post-Soviet
Russia. ASEAN has not only absorbed the Indo-Chinese states (Vietnam,
Cambodia, and Laos), but also piloted the extension of the integration
process north towards China, Japan and South Korea, none of whom
participated in Cold War-era Asian integration and now conceivably
west towards India and south towards Australia and New Zealand as
well.
Hitherto,
the post-communist enlargements have not come at the cost of the
“depth” of integration in either region. In particular, in Europe,
the reunification of Germany actually served as a catalyst to a
radical deepening of European integration by facilitating and accelerating
plans for the adoption of a single currency now used by 12 of the
15 “old” member states. By and large, however, in both regions the
enlargement process has outpaced that of the reform of pre-existing
decision-making procedures and norms. The probability that over
the long term the member states of the enlarged regional organisations
will be able to adopt effective common policies under existing norms
and procedures or alternatively to reach a consensus to reform decision-making
norms so that such policies will be able to be developed, let alone
implemented, has declined with enlargement. This is especially the
case in Asia, where the levels of socio-economic and political diversity
and therefore also potential divergences of interest between states
are higher than in Europe and the capacity of regional organisations
to ensure the compliance of member states with common policies or
decisions, where they have been able to be adopted, is lower.
In
the EU, growing decision-making deadlock as a consequence of the
priority that enlargement has effectively enjoyed over institutional
reform is likely to exacerbate an already existing imbalance between
“negative integration”, the abolition of barriers to cross-border
exchange, and “positive integration”, the development of common
policies that intervene in the workings of the market. Whereas,
by making the adoption of common policies more difficult, enlargement
without institutional reform militates against further “positive
integration”, it leaves the scope for greater “negative”, i.e. market-liberalising,
integration largely intact, because, under the EU treaties, the
European Commission, in conjunction with the European Court of Justice
(ECJ), has significant powers to liberalise markets without having
to seek approval from the Council or the European Parliament.
This
growing imbalance between negative and positive integration in the
EU represents a growing threat to European integration, because
and to the extent that it fosters rising public disaffection with
“Europe”. The days when there was a “permissive consensus” in favour
of closer integration among the publics of the EU member states
have long since passed. The EU is in the grip simultaneously of
“deepening” and “enlargement fatigue”, as reflected in the growth
of critical public attitudes towards the Euro, the Constitutional
Treaty, the 2004 round of enlargement and the prospect of Turkish
accession and in the rising tide of support for Euro-sceptical national-populist
parties in many EU member states. The fact that this sentiment and
support for such movements appear to be particularly strong among
the working and lower middle classes and those who feel economically
and socially most insecure and threatened by globalisation and market
liberalisation suggests that this trend is indeed related to the
growing imbalance between negative and positive integration. Whatever
its causes, however, this trend, if it should continue and intensify,
may jeopardise even the existing level of European integration.
Asia and the already highly integrated Europe may both be hard pressed
in future to advance regional integration much beyond its existing
levels.
The
Impact of Security Co-operation on the Regional Integration Process
in Europe
May-Britt
Stumbaum
Resident
Fellow
German
Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
With security having been the raison d'être for European integration,
functional co-operation in the field of security has developed into
a major impetus for regional integration in the European Union (EU).
The practical experiences made due to the helplessness when being
divided e.g. in the run-up to the Iraq war, but also during the
EU's missions starting in 2003, have constituted a driving force
for policy-making and further institutionalisation and hence regional
integration in the field of security.
Ongoing
co-operation is leading to an increasing convergence of threat perceptions,
but also of strategies and doctrines, reflected in similar security
concepts all over Europe . Practical experiences made on the ground
during the EU missions that started with the Congo mission in 2003
led to a progressing harmonisation of processes across the EU member
states and a further
institutionalisation in the field of security policy. With security
being the foundation for the EU's continuing prosperity, functional
co-operation has not only turned out to be the only way to go in
this very sensitive, jealously guarded policy field by nation states,
but has also been leading to further regional integration in the
security field and hence for further regional integration in Europe.
The
following article will shed light on the impact of functional co-operation
on regional integration in Europe. After a short historical overview
over the basis of security co-operation in Europe, the article will
focus on the experiences made within the framework of the EU's European
Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) that pushed for further evolution
in this policy field as well as on the impact functional co-operation
has been having on the development of further integration in European
security and on regional co-operation.
Historical
Overview of European Security
Before
assessing the impact of functional co-operation in European security
affairs on regional integration it is important to define the key
terms – regional integration and security. In this paper, regional
integration is defined as a process by which (neighbouring) countries
voluntarily and increasingly co-operate in order to achieve common
regulations in one or more policy areas and an ever more institutionalised
association to provide mutual benefits and to prevent conflicts.
Defining
security, the notion of the term has changed over time during the
evolving, incremental process of European regional integration.
Since the 1950s, Western Europe's security mechanisms were developed
over time in order to cope with the Cold War challenge of a bipolar
situation with the Soviet Union on the other side. The enemy – apart
from an persisting subconscious fear of a re-emergence of Germany
– was a state-like entity (Soviet Union and, consequently, its Warsaw
Pact allies) from which a conventional attack with tanks, etc. plus
the potential use of nuclear arms was expected. Accordingly, the
strategies chosen encompassed deterrence, détente, dialogue
and integration, with the adequate institutions designed: The North
Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), the European Community and
the Conference for Security and Co-operation in Europe (CSCE). With
the end of the Cold War and hence the end of the bipolar confrontation,
the security landscape has changed significantly. While the desire
for an Immanuel Kant's “perpetual peace” or, Francis Fukuyama's
“end of history” was great, experiences showed that the Cold War
had left a legacy of small scale wars, ethnically respectively religiously
driven and had given the stage to emerging non-state actors that
engaged in asymmetrical warfare in the form of terrorist attacks.
The war in the Balkans but also September 11 terrorist attacks in
the US , and the subsequent terrorist attacks in Madrid and London
illustrated the change in threats and challenges. Subsequent analysis
for the causes and cures for the new challenges led to the development
of “extended” security concepts in Europe and elsewhere. Terms for
this new concept range from the “New Security Concept” to “comprehensive
security” and an “extended security term” (“ erweiterter Sicherheitsbegriff
”). All of these new concepts emphasise the changing nature
of risks and threats in the 21 st century, underlining the pre-eminence
of international terrorism, the influence of non-governmental actors
and the asymmetrical character of new confrontations. They also
include challenges that go far beyond purely military concerns,
such as demographic shifts, spreading pandemics and securing natural
resources. Furthermore, they all agree that the challenges of today
are global in nature and require concerted responses by the international
community.
Security
Institutions in Europe after the end of the Cold War – OSCE, NATO
and the European Union
Along
with a redefinition of the very concept of security, the institutions
to cope with the new challenges tried to adjust adequately. The
North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), the Conference for Security
and Co-operation in Europe (CSCE) and the European Communities (the
EU from 1993) all broadened their membership and the range of their
activities to cope with the new challenges and to remain relevant
and hence continue its existence.
CSCE
/ OSCE
As
the mechanisms of “soft diplomacy and co-operative strategies” proved
to be inadequate to cope with the outbreak of the war in Yugoslavia
in summer 1991, the CSCE was turned from a “Conference” into a permanent
organisation, the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in
Europe (OSCE). The OSCE was tasked with early warning mechanisms,
conflict prevention, crisis management and post-conflict rehabilitation.
Its work was upgraded by an increased number of meetings of the
Committee of Senior Officials (CSO) and the application of more
competences to enable the CSO to deal with crises occurring in-between
high-level meetings. After the experience of the Serbs blocking
the decision-making process in 1991, the OSCE foreign ministers
also introduced a deviation for the CSO from the consensus rule:
declarations and communiqués could, in cases of grave violations
of CSCE obligations, be made without taking into account the voice
of no more than one state (“consensus minus one rule”). Beyond these
measures, the Conflict Prevention Centre (CPC) received additional
competences, including the ability to offer field missions. A Consultative
Committee for security-related negotiations, a network for better
communication between the foreign ministers and an Office for Democratic
Institutions and Human Rights (replacing the Warsaw-based Office
of Free Elections) were established. Despite this broad range of
activities, the most prominent activities of the OSCE today are
its election observations.
NATO
A
major cornerstone in Europe's security architecture remains NATO:
Although the institution has been fighting to redefine its purpose
since the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, it
remains the most durable, institutionalised exchange platform between
Europe and the United States (US) and the most experienced and best
equipped military alliance. While keeping the US in Europe , it
also strives against a renationalisation of defence policy. NATO
has been struggling with the redefinition of its tasks, its membership
and its relevance, first and foremost for its most important member,
the United States . Along with the US ' changing shift of attention
towards the Middle and the Far East, the US demanded for a fairer
“burden-sharing” (yet not for a “decision-making sharing”). The
European Security and Defence Initiative (ESDI) was developed to
build up a “European pillar” within NATO, an effort to increase
European capabilities within the alliance. This desire was further
fleshed out in the Defence Capabilities Initiative (DCI) of the
Washington DC Summit in 1999 and the following Prague Capabilities
Commitment (PCC) at the 2002 summit.
From
an organisation nicknamed “No Action Talk Only”, NATO has transformed
into an expeditionary and operating alliance. Apart from new capabilities
commitments, that still need to be fulfilled so far, the US also
demanded NATO to become more flexible in its areas of activity,
approaches and tools – not only to operate “out of area”, but also
to provide flexible, fast, stand-by units: The NATO Response Force,
comprised of air, naval and land forces, can number up to 25,000
troops, deployable after 5 days of notice and self-sustainable for
up to 30 days. Beyond this, NATO has extended its member ship by
including all post-communist Central European States and has also
set up institutionalised relationships with non-members through
the Partnership for Peace (PfP) programme as well as a Russia-NATO
Council and a Ukraine-NATO commission.